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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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