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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
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Showing 3216 to 3220 news of total 6871 |
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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