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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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