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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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