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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
PANAMAX: WITNESSED A FAIRLY STABLE MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
COALspot.com: Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market noted another weekly increase, clouds of uncertainty returned mid-week onwards, as the mini ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
FACING CHALLENGES AND MEETING OPPORTUNITIES - INTERNATIONAL EPC CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
Press Release: SKYCONNECTION and TRANSEVENT, which is fully supported by the Institution of Engineers Indonesia and Ministry of Industry of the Rep ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.65 FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery decreased US$ 2.83 (-5.10%) month over month and US$ 1.35 (-2.50%) week ove ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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