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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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