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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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