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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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