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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
THE FALL IN BUNKER PRICES REDUCE FUEL COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY - BIMCO, PETER SAND
For a ship that burns 24 tonnes of fuel per day while steaming, fuel costs are reduced by as much as USD 1 million a year if current price level st ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
DRY BULKERS NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES REACHED 11.8 MILLION DWT DURING THIRD QUARTER, NET FLEET GROWTH FOR 2014 TO REACH 5% - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has rebounded since its less than impressive performance since the start of the year, but overall, third quarter figures could ...
Friday, 21 November 14
BUMI ENTERS INTO CONDITIONAL SALE & PURCHASE AGREEMENT TO SELL FBS STAKE
COALspot.com: PT Bumi Resources Tbk, one of the Indonesia's largest coal producers confirms that it has executed a Conditional Sale and Purchas ...
Friday, 21 November 14
U.S LAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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