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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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