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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.4% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) o ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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