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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
Friday, 28 November 14
NEW BIMCO CLAUSE AIMS TO REDUCE SUPPLIERS' RELIANCE ON SHIP ARREST FOR CHARTERERS' UNPAID BUNKERS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Ship owners can, on occasion, find themselves in the invidious position of suffering unexpected loss of hire due to a tim ...
Friday, 28 November 14
JSW ENERGY AND GRM RESOURCES JOIN GLOBALCOAL
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced yesterday that two new Market Members have joined its online coal trading platform. According globaCOAL&rsq ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
MINING SERVICES TAX SPIKED BY 233% - BISNIS INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Energy and Mineral Resources Department of Indonesia said the tax contribution from mining services sector in the 3rd Q 2014 ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available to ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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