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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
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Showing 3351 to 3355 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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