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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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