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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compar ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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