We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 07 September 14
SHIPMANAGERS SUPERVISION CONTRACT FOR NEWBUILDS - BIMCO
Shipmanagers are frequently called upon by their owner clients to supervise newbuilding projects on their behalf. The scope of the manager’s ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
SLOW COAL EXPORT REGISTRATION RAISES CONCERNS - THE JAKARTA POST
Several coal mining companies have yet to receive the go-ahead from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry to obtain exporting licenses, leading ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING, DESPITE WEAK SECOND QUARTER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been rebounding during the past month, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week on a high note, reaching 1,155 points ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
INDONESIA WANTS TO REGULATE COAL DEALS - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
Indonesia has raised concerns about suspected coal deals struck between overseas buyers and its unregistered domestic miners, the telegraph India r ...
Friday, 05 September 14
U.S. PRODUCED 19.2 MMST OF COAL LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
|
|
|
Showing 3501 to 3505 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
