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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 04 September 14
PUNJAB STATE POWER CORPORATION LIMITED OF INDIA HAS DECIDED TO BUY IMPORTED COAL - HINDUSTAN TIMES
COALspot.com: The Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) has decided to buy imported coal to run its thermal plants, as reported by Hindust ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINERS MAY GET MORE TIME ON ROYALTIES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that coal miners in Indonesia are likely to get more time to repay the government the royalties that were set off ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.90 (-1.68%) day on day and US$ 1.80 (-3.31%) per mt week on week. The ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
CAPESIZE : SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE FOR Q3/Q4 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market has experienced more activity this week. Rates for TA´s are up about 8% w-o-w, much lead by an increasing number ...
Wednesday, 03 September 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO. LTD INVITES BIDS FOR 1 MMT OF BITUMINOUS & SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: KOMIPO again in the market for 1 million tons of 5700 NAR and 4600 NAR coal for Jan – March 2015. South Korean state-owned util ...
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Showing 3506 to 3510 news of total 6871 |
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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