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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 September 14
CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR JAN 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 68.30 PMT; DOWN 2.43% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.95 (-1.39%) day on day and US$ 1.40 (-2.03%) week on wee ...
Tuesday, 02 September 14
BERAU COAL HAS AWARDED A CONTRACT EXTENSION TO BUMA FOR 647 MLN BCM OVERBURDEN REMOVAL
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (“DOID”) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (&l ...
Monday, 01 September 14
GLOBALCOAL WELCOMES TWO NEW MARKET MEMBERS
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced today that two Market Members have joined its trading community. Both new Market Members are from the India ...
Sunday, 31 August 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES INTO INDIA FROM INDONESIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to firm this week. BDI up 5.42 percent week ended 29 August and closed at 1147 points while the Ca ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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