We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 28 August 14
BANPU REPORTS HIGHER FIRST-HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR 2014
COALspot.com: Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) reports higher first half-year financial results for 2014 having its gross profit increasing 3 p ...
Wednesday, 27 August 14
FREIGHT MARKET: IS THE MARKET IN A RECOVERY MOOD? - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Is the market in a recovery mood?
August is typically a time when the shipping industry takes it easy… charter-ers book their requireme ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
4TH ANNUAL ASIA NICKEL
4th Annual Asia Nickel
19-20 Nov 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
Asia’s Premier Nickel Conference
Regulation in ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
DESPITE LOW DRY BULK RATES, BULKER PRICES ARE STILL HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, August tends to be a month of slow activity in the sale and purchasing market and this year has been no exception. However, as shipb ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
GOVT ON TRACK TO LIMIT COAL OUTPUT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has announced that it will proceed with plans to cap the production of coal next year, a move aimed not only at protecting the envir ...
|
|
|
Showing 3521 to 3525 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
