We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 25 August 14
4TH ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS
4th Annual Floating Terminals
18-20 Nov 2014
Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza,
Indonesia
Web Site
The Floating Terminal c ...
Monday, 25 August 14
THE BALTIC DRY IS JUMPING, BUT DON'T DRAW ANY BROAD CONCLUSIONS - NASDAQ
Those who consistently preach doom and gloom and see an economic apocalypse around every corner would make me laugh if it weren’t for the fac ...
Monday, 25 August 14
COAL CEOS: DEMISE OF COAL 'EXAGGERATED' - MARK WILCOX
By Mark Wilcox
Heads of some of the largest coal companies in Wyoming are saying the demise of coal has been exaggerated, though the industry def ...
Monday, 25 August 14
INDO COAL SWAPS W-O-W: NEGATIVE; M-O-M: POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.28%) day on day and US$ 0.65 (-1.19%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 25 August 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY OVER DAY AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.30 (+0.44%) day on day and decreased US$ 0.20 (- ...
|
|
|
Showing 3526 to 3530 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
|
| |
| |
|
