We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
|
|
|
Showing 3536 to 3540 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
