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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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