We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 14 September 14
FREIGHT RATES RALLY AS DEMAND INCREASED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number (in US$) issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange up 2.25 percent week on week. BDI cl ...
Friday, 12 September 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 673.3 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 11 September 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET IS TAKING A BREATHER - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We have experienced more activity in both hemispheres this week, said Fearnleys in this week's weekly report.
"We see rates c ...
Wednesday, 10 September 14
ARE GREEK BANKS ON THE VERGE TO START LENDING AGAIN? - JOHN N. COTZIAS
It is well known that Greek Banks had suffered severely after the economic crisis of 2008. From that period onwards, major changes have occur ...
Tuesday, 09 September 14
WEAK M&A DESPITE ABUNDANT DISTRESSED INDONESIA COAL ASSETS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that a meaningful level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity leading to a consolidation of the coal sector ...
|
|
|
Showing 3491 to 3495 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
