We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
|
|
|
Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
