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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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