We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
|
|
|
Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
