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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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