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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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