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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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