We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
|
|
|
Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
