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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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