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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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