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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 August 14
GOVT ON TRACK TO LIMIT COAL OUTPUT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has announced that it will proceed with plans to cap the production of coal next year, a move aimed not only at protecting the envir ...
Monday, 25 August 14
4TH ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS
4th Annual Floating Terminals
18-20 Nov 2014
Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza,
Indonesia
Web Site
The Floating Terminal c ...
Monday, 25 August 14
THE BALTIC DRY IS JUMPING, BUT DON'T DRAW ANY BROAD CONCLUSIONS - NASDAQ
Those who consistently preach doom and gloom and see an economic apocalypse around every corner would make me laugh if it weren’t for the fac ...
Monday, 25 August 14
COAL CEOS: DEMISE OF COAL 'EXAGGERATED' - MARK WILCOX
By Mark Wilcox
Heads of some of the largest coal companies in Wyoming are saying the demise of coal has been exaggerated, though the industry def ...
Monday, 25 August 14
INDO COAL SWAPS W-O-W: NEGATIVE; M-O-M: POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.28%) day on day and US$ 0.65 (-1.19%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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