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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 August 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY OVER DAY AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.30 (+0.44%) day on day and decreased US$ 0.20 (- ...
Sunday, 24 August 14
SEA FREIGHT MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK POSITIVE; CAPES DRIVE FREIGHTS HIGHER
COALspot.com: The freight market has strengthen further this week with BDI up 7.19 pct week on week. The BDI was closed at 1,088 points while the B ...
Friday, 22 August 14
INDIAN IRON ORE ROYALTY RISE NOT LIKELY TO HURT STEELMAKERS' MARGINS - FITCH
Fitch Ratings does not expect an increase in India's iron ore royalty rates to have a major impact on the profitability of steel producers in t ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ARBITRATION CLAUSE IN LOU HELD TO REPLACE CHARTERPARTY ARBITRATION CLAUSE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Claimants had claims for cargo damage against the vessel Owners arising under four bills of lading. The vessel was th ...
Friday, 22 August 14
ICAP ENERGY LAUNCHES GLOBAL COKING COAL DERIVATIVES TRADING
First contract completed and cleared on CME
COALspot.com: ICAP Energy, the energy business of ICAP plc, announces today that it has successful ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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