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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
BANPU REPORTS HIGHER FIRST-HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR 2014
COALspot.com: Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) reports higher first half-year financial results for 2014 having its gross profit increasing 3 p ...
Wednesday, 27 August 14
FREIGHT MARKET: IS THE MARKET IN A RECOVERY MOOD? - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Is the market in a recovery mood?
August is typically a time when the shipping industry takes it easy… charter-ers book their requireme ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
4TH ANNUAL ASIA NICKEL
4th Annual Asia Nickel
19-20 Nov 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
Asia’s Premier Nickel Conference
Regulation in ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
DESPITE LOW DRY BULK RATES, BULKER PRICES ARE STILL HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, August tends to be a month of slow activity in the sale and purchasing market and this year has been no exception. However, as shipb ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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