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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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