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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 September 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO. LTD INVITES BIDS FOR 1 MMT OF BITUMINOUS & SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: KOMIPO again in the market for 1 million tons of 5700 NAR and 4600 NAR coal for Jan – March 2015. South Korean state-owned util ...
Wednesday, 03 September 14
CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR JAN 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 68.30 PMT; DOWN 2.43% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.95 (-1.39%) day on day and US$ 1.40 (-2.03%) week on wee ...
Tuesday, 02 September 14
BERAU COAL HAS AWARDED A CONTRACT EXTENSION TO BUMA FOR 647 MLN BCM OVERBURDEN REMOVAL
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (“DOID”) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (&l ...
Monday, 01 September 14
GLOBALCOAL WELCOMES TWO NEW MARKET MEMBERS
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced today that two Market Members have joined its trading community. Both new Market Members are from the India ...
Sunday, 31 August 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES INTO INDIA FROM INDONESIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to firm this week. BDI up 5.42 percent week ended 29 August and closed at 1147 points while the Ca ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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