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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
SHIPMANAGERS SUPERVISION CONTRACT FOR NEWBUILDS - BIMCO
Shipmanagers are frequently called upon by their owner clients to supervise newbuilding projects on their behalf. The scope of the manager’s ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
SLOW COAL EXPORT REGISTRATION RAISES CONCERNS - THE JAKARTA POST
Several coal mining companies have yet to receive the go-ahead from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry to obtain exporting licenses, leading ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING, DESPITE WEAK SECOND QUARTER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been rebounding during the past month, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week on a high note, reaching 1,155 points ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
INDONESIA WANTS TO REGULATE COAL DEALS - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
Indonesia has raised concerns about suspected coal deals struck between overseas buyers and its unregistered domestic miners, the telegraph India r ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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