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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
Sunday, 14 September 14
FREIGHT RATES RALLY AS DEMAND INCREASED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number (in US$) issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange up 2.25 percent week on week. BDI cl ...
Friday, 12 September 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 673.3 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 11 September 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET IS TAKING A BREATHER - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We have experienced more activity in both hemispheres this week, said Fearnleys in this week's weekly report.
"We see rates c ...
Wednesday, 10 September 14
ARE GREEK BANKS ON THE VERGE TO START LENDING AGAIN? - JOHN N. COTZIAS
It is well known that Greek Banks had suffered severely after the economic crisis of 2008. From that period onwards, major changes have occur ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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