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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 September 14
U.S. PRODUCED 19.2 MMST OF COAL LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
PUNJAB STATE POWER CORPORATION LIMITED OF INDIA HAS DECIDED TO BUY IMPORTED COAL - HINDUSTAN TIMES
COALspot.com: The Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) has decided to buy imported coal to run its thermal plants, as reported by Hindust ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINERS MAY GET MORE TIME ON ROYALTIES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that coal miners in Indonesia are likely to get more time to repay the government the royalties that were set off ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.90 (-1.68%) day on day and US$ 1.80 (-3.31%) per mt week on week. The ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
CAPESIZE : SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE FOR Q3/Q4 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market has experienced more activity this week. Rates for TA´s are up about 8% w-o-w, much lead by an increasing number ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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