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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 August 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.4% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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