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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 August 14
INDIA'S PLAN TO START AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND TO INVEST US$ 1 TRILLION BY 2017 WILL SURELY AFFECT THE DRY BULK TRADE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic Supra market has continued its improving sentiment with rates climbing and TA´s are now up about US$ 900 w-o-w, said Fea ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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