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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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