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Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers?
Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year?
In the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed.
The continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, com-pared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago.
Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized. This means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line.
In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest.
Moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries.
An identical policy was set last summer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar record volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well.
So it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth.
Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall.
Eva Tzima - Research Analyst
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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