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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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