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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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