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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 23 July 14
HARD COAL 2013: THE WORLD'S SECOND-MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE AND GUARANTOR FOR THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES DURING TIMES OF CRISIS
Hard coal is again in 2013 the fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in the world. As shown in the BP Statistical Review 2014, it covered ab ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
THE CURRENT COAL PRICES ARE UNPROFITABLE FOR MINERS; COAL PRICES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE - FITCH
COALspot.com: The Fitch Ratings expect the benchmark Newcastle coal prices (currently at about USD70/MT) to gradually increase.
Fitch's la ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3' 14 DOWN 5.21%; Q4' 14 DOWN 3.56%; Q1' 15 DOWN 4.75% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 flat on day, weak week on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIA'S MINERAL EXPORT BAN: CHINA UNDER PRESSURE? - CLARKSONS
In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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