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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Tuesday, 22 July 14
ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release: Registration Open for Fourth Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group Conference
Register today for this year&r ...
Monday, 21 July 14
25% OF INDIA'S POWER PLANTS WERE HAVING SUPER CRITICAL COAL STOCK - COAL AND POWER MINISTER
25% of India’s power plants were having super critical coal stock; power utilities have also been advised to enhance the import of coal - Coa ...
Monday, 21 July 14
INDONESIA'S STATE CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM ENJOYED HIGHER SELLING PRICE DURING THIS STORMY MARKET
COALspot.com: PT Bukit Asam, the Indonesian government controlled coal miner announced today that, the company has produced 7.70 million tons of co ...
Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.
...
Sunday, 20 July 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNWARD TREND
COALspot.com: The market continued its downward trend this week as all segments were down compared to last week. The Cape and Panamax indices being ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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