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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market de ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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