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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Thursday, 10 July 14
SGX EXPANDS ACROSS THE BULKS WITH NEW COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) is expanding its bulk commodity derivatives offering by launching new coking and thermal coal products on 4 ...
Thursday, 10 July 14
HANDY: SMALL INCREASE; PANAMAX: POSITIVE TONE; CAPESIZE: PAPER VALUES REMAIN WEEK
Handy
It is a general increase in activity in both hemispheres whereas rates have just experienced a small increase. In the Feast we see stable a ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIP INVESTMENTS ARE TRENDING LOWER
Most ship owners are deeming current ship prices on the high side, refraining from making serious commitments in new acquisitions or newbuilding or ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADVISED POWER UTILITIES TO INCREASE COAL IMPORTS
COALspot.com: The government of India has advised power utilities to increase coal imports to meet fuel shortages and those that have fuel supply p ...
Wednesday, 09 July 14
PANAMAX MARKET FINALLY CORRECTING UPWARDS; AVERAGE TC MORE THAN DOUBLING WEEK ON WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has closed off on Friday on a more positive note, with most segments noting weekly gains and the Panamax market finally correct ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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