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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
Friday, 04 July 14
US: WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coa ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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