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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 02 July 14
HANDY BULKERS PROVE TO BE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS OVER THE PAST WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Handy dry bulker proved to be the most sought after ship by ship owners active in the second hand market, which saw a slight decline in terms o ...
Wednesday, 02 July 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
After 6 months, 57 ministerial meetings and 67 political agreements, the journey of the Greek Presidency in the EU reached its end yesterday; only ...
Tuesday, 01 July 14
INDIAN POWER PLANT COAL STOCKPILES VERY LOW
COALspot.com: According to today's Weekly Dry Bulk Report published by Commodore Research, Indian power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen t ...
Monday, 30 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL PRICES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 30 June 14
WEEKLY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES; Q1'15 LOST US$ 4.55 PMT IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 fell US$ 5.25 month on month on Friday, dipping under $69 a tone. The CFR South Ch ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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