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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 30 June 14
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO WEAK
COALspot.com: The latest dry Index shows that average all-in spot freight declined, the Panamax and Supramax slipping by 9.11 percent and 4% respec ...
Friday, 27 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR UPSIDE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept up its lacklustre performance during the past week, as evidenced by the course of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
PANAMAX : A PACIFIC ROUND PAYS AROUND US$ 3K DAILY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Atlantic there has been little activity which again has caused rates to slip across all trades. TA´s are now down to US$ 5,500 ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 750K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR 3CY
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued a new tender for supply of total 250,000 MT of bituminous co ...
Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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