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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 19 June 14
PANAMAX: VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING THE ALL TIME LOW RECORD - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rat ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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